Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver (English) Hardcover Book

Description: Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver Estimated delivery 3-12 business days Format Hardcover Condition Brand New Description For use in schools and libraries only. The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals from hype. Publisher Description "Nate Silvers "The Signal and the Noise" is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift" Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hairs breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nations foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silvers insights are an essential read. Author Biography Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Details ISBN 0606368051 ISBN-13 9780606368056 Title Signal and the Noise Author Nate Silver Format Hardcover Year 2015 Pages 560 Publisher Turtleback Books GE_Item_ID:94689639; About Us Grand Eagle Retail is the ideal place for all your shopping needs! With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and over 1,000,000 in stock items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! Shipping & Delivery Times Shipping is FREE to any address in USA. Please view eBay estimated delivery times at the top of the listing. Deliveries are made by either USPS or Courier. We are unable to deliver faster than stated. International deliveries will take 1-6 weeks. NOTE: We are unable to offer combined shipping for multiple items purchased. This is because our items are shipped from different locations. Returns If you wish to return an item, please consult our Returns Policy as below: Please contact Customer Services and request "Return Authorisation" before you send your item back to us. Unauthorised returns will not be accepted. Returns must be postmarked within 4 business days of authorisation and must be in resellable condition. Returns are shipped at the customer's risk. We cannot take responsibility for items which are lost or damaged in transit. For purchases where a shipping charge was paid, there will be no refund of the original shipping charge. Additional Questions If you have any questions please feel free to Contact Us. Categories Baby Books Electronics Fashion Games Health & Beauty Home, Garden & Pets Movies Music Sports & Outdoors Toys

Price: 39.28 USD

Location: Fairfield, Ohio

End Time: 2024-12-02T18:53:16.000Z

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